Iran has launched fresh missile and drone attacks against US military positions in the Middle East, including targets in Kuwait, as the conflict with Washington enters another dangerous phase. The latest strikes came after US forces carried out extensive attacks on Iranian military assets along the southern coast and near the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz warned that mounting US sanctions and economic pressure could push Tehran towards what he described as “desperate steps”.
What happened in the latest Iran-US military escalation?
Iran launched missile and drone attacks against US military positions and American allies in the Gulf following US strikes on Iranian targets earlier this week. Kuwait said its air defences intercepted incoming missiles and drones on Thursday, describing the incident as Iranian aggression. Bahrain and Jordan had also reported intercepting Iranian attacks during the previous day.
The latest exchange followed US strikes on Iranian rocket-launching capabilities near the Strait of Hormuz. Washington said the operations were intended to counter Iranian efforts to threaten shipping and potentially lay mines in the strategically important waterway.
The confrontation represents the most significant direct exchange between the United States and Iran since July. Fighting had eased considerably during August before hostilities intensified again at the end of the month.
Iran’s response has extended beyond American positions inside the region. Missile and drone attacks have affected areas around several countries hosting US forces, increasing pressure on Gulf governments to strengthen air-defence measures while attempting to avoid becoming directly involved in the wider conflict.
Why has Israel warned about Iran taking “desperate steps”?
Israel’s Defence Minister Israel Katz said on Thursday that US economic sanctions against Iran were having a significant impact but warned that the pressure could produce a more dangerous response from Tehran.
Katz said there were signs that the economic strain, combined with fears of domestic unrest and political instability, could push the Iranian leadership towards extreme measures. His remarks came as the United States continues to tighten restrictions designed to reduce Iran’s access to international finance and oil revenues.
Katz also issued a renewed warning over any Iranian attack on Israel. He said Israel would respond by targeting Iranian military and civilian infrastructure, including energy facilities, if Tehran attacked Israeli territory.
The comments underline the broader danger facing the region: pressure intended to weaken Iran’s ability to continue the war could simultaneously increase the incentive for Tehran to retaliate elsewhere.
How severely are US sanctions affecting Iran’s economy?
The economic consequences for Iran have become increasingly severe. Reuters reported on Thursday that Iranian oil loadings had fallen to about 260,000 barrels per day, compared with roughly 1.7 million barrels a day a year earlier, according to commodity analytics company Kpler.
Iran’s currency has also fallen sharply, with the rial trading at more than 2.2 million to the US dollar compared with about one million a year earlier. Official figures cited by Reuters put 12-month average inflation at 69.9%, while food, beverages and tobacco prices were rising considerably faster.
The pressure has been intensified by restrictions on Iran’s ability to use financial channels and established sanctions-evasion networks. Front companies, shipping arrangements and other mechanisms previously used to move Iranian oil and finance imports have become more expensive and difficult to operate.
Iranian officials have acknowledged the deterioration. President Masoud Pezeshkian has said total trade has fallen by between 25% and 35%, with imports particularly affected. The United Arab Emirates also suspended commercial and financial dealings with Iran in August, further disrupting an important trade route.
Why is the Strait of Hormuz central to the crisis?
The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the most important pressure points in the conflict because of its role in global energy transportation.
Before the war, the waterway carried roughly a fifth of global oil and gas shipments. Fighting and restrictions around the strait have therefore created concerns far beyond the Middle East, particularly for countries dependent on imported crude oil and liquefied natural gas.
Shipping traffic has already fallen. Preliminary data cited by Reuters showed that only six commodity vessels crossed the strait on Wednesday, compared with a 10-day average of about 13. Iran has also added vessels to a list of ships it considers non-compliant and potentially subject to fines, confiscation or detention.
The disruption has had an immediate effect on energy markets. Brent crude rose to about $97.29 a barrel on Thursday, while US West Texas Intermediate crude climbed above $93, with both benchmarks reaching six-week highs.
For European consumers and businesses, prolonged disruption could translate into higher fuel, transport and production costs. It could also complicate efforts by central banks to control inflation if energy prices remain elevated.
What has happened to civilians during the renewed fighting?
The latest US strikes have also generated concern over civilian casualties. Iranian officials said 18 people were killed and 108 wounded in Tuesday night’s attacks.
The Iranian Red Crescent said four people were killed and 67 wounded when a strike hit a wedding ceremony near the Strait of Hormuz. Reuters reported that the victims included a four-year-old child. The US military said it does not target civilians and acknowledged reports concerning the incident.
Iran has also reported military casualties. The semi-official Tasnim news agency said at least 13 Iranian military personnel had been killed by US strikes this week, including three pilots and members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Aerospace Force.
The competing claims and continuing military operations make independent verification of some casualty figures difficult. Nevertheless, the renewed fighting is adding to an already substantial humanitarian toll from a conflict that began with US and Israeli strikes in late February.
Could economic pressure lead to further military escalation?
The central question for policymakers is whether sanctions will encourage Tehran to negotiate or instead increase its willingness to escalate.
The US economic campaign is clearly placing Iran under considerable strain. Reuters reported that petrol reserves are dwindling, imports are becoming more expensive and the collapse of the currency is intensifying pressure on households. At the same time, the Iranian government remains publicly defiant and has continued military operations against US positions.
That creates a difficult strategic calculation. Washington appears to be using economic pressure to force Iran towards concessions, while Tehran may calculate that continued military pressure against US interests can increase the costs of the campaign and strengthen its negotiating position.
Analysts have also warned that prolonged confrontation could produce unintended consequences, particularly if attacks spread to commercial shipping or additional US-allied countries.
What could happen next in the Iran-US conflict?
The immediate priority for the United States and its regional partners will be protecting military personnel, commercial shipping and energy infrastructure while preventing the latest exchange of attacks from becoming a wider regional war.
Iran, meanwhile, faces a growing economic crisis alongside continued military pressure. Reuters reported that neither Tehran nor Washington had yet signalled a willingness to make the concessions demanded by the other side, leaving the conflict in a costly stalemate.
For Israel, the danger is particularly acute. Katz’s warning suggests that any Iranian attack on Israeli territory could trigger a much broader Israeli response against Iranian infrastructure. Such an escalation could further threaten energy supplies and shipping routes.
The coming days will therefore be closely watched for signs of renewed diplomacy, additional US sanctions, further Iranian attacks or Israeli military action. With the Strait of Hormuz already under pressure and oil prices rising, the consequences of the Iran-US confrontation are no longer confined to the battlefield and could increasingly affect global energy markets, inflation and regional security.
