Forests across Europe are facing increasing pressure from drought, heat and water shortages as climate change alters rainfall patterns and raises temperatures, with new European data highlighting the growing impact on vegetation and forest ecosystems. In 2025, drought affected an estimated 927,648 square kilometres of the European Union, while vegetation productivity failed to recover to its 2000–2020 baseline across nearly 248,000 square kilometres. Forests accounted for almost 49,000 square kilometres of the affected area, according to the European Environment Agency (EEA).
Why are forests across Europe becoming increasingly dry?
The drying of European forests is closely linked to rising temperatures, prolonged periods without sufficient rainfall and increasing evaporation from soils and vegetation. Climate change is making the water balance more difficult for many forests, particularly when heatwaves coincide with extended dry spells.
The EEA says Europe is warming faster than the global average, increasing the risks associated with drought, water scarcity and extreme heat. Southern Europe is particularly exposed because its baseline climate is already comparatively dry, while central parts of the continent are also facing growing risks.
Forest ecosystems do not all respond to drought in the same way. Species, soil conditions, altitude and forest management all influence how trees cope with water shortages. However, repeated periods of stress can weaken trees and reduce their ability to recover.
The Forest Information System of Europe notes that drought, especially when combined with high temperatures, can reduce photosynthesis and eventually cause severe dehydration and hydraulic failure in trees. Research has also linked drought with greater forest mortality and more severe forest fires across Europe.
How severe has Europe’s recent drought problem become?
The scale of drought-related ecological stress has increased in recent years. According to the EEA, drought impacts on vegetation have remained consistently above the long-term baseline since 2017.
In 2025, approximately 927,648 square kilometres of the EU experienced severe drought conditions. Vegetation productivity did not return to baseline levels across about 247,668 square kilometres. Forests represented 48,913 square kilometres of that affected area.
The problem was not confined to one part of the continent. The EEA identified significant vegetation impacts in both western and eastern Europe. Belgium, France, Ireland and the Netherlands experienced areas of vegetation stress above their 2000–2020 baseline, while Bulgaria, Cyprus, Greece, Hungary and Romania were among the eastern European countries experiencing substantial impacts.
These figures do not mean that every forest in these countries is drying out or dying. Rather, they show the geographical extent of vegetation productivity that remained below established baseline conditions after drought exposure.
Which parts of Europe are most exposed to forest drought?
Southern Europe remains particularly vulnerable to long-term drying. The Mediterranean region faces a combination of high temperatures, seasonal water shortages, wildfire risk and changing rainfall patterns.
The EEA says soil moisture has significantly declined in southern Europe and projects that this trend is likely to continue. Under higher-emissions scenarios, drought severity is expected to increase substantially in central Europe and even more strongly in southern Europe.
Recent conditions have also demonstrated that drought risk is not limited to Mediterranean countries. A Joint Research Centre assessment in July 2026 found that drought conditions had deteriorated across central and eastern Europe, while warning conditions had expanded in western Europe and extensively affected France. Soil moisture and river flows were below normal in several areas, with heatwaves adding to vegetation and water stress.
This wider geographical exposure is significant because forests in regions that have historically experienced more reliable rainfall may not be equally prepared for persistent water shortages.
How are drought and heat affecting tree health?
Trees respond to drought by reducing water loss, including by closing the tiny pores on their leaves known as stomata. While this can conserve water in the short term, it also limits photosynthesis and reduces the tree’s capacity to grow.
Persistent water stress can eventually damage the tree’s internal water transport system. The result can be branch dieback, canopy loss and, in severe cases, tree mortality.
The EEA has described the condition of European forests as mixed. Some indicators, including biomass and productivity, suggest improvement in parts of the continent, while other measures, including defoliation and canopy mortality, point to serious pressures.
Drought can also leave trees more vulnerable to other threats. Weakened forests are less capable of resisting insect pests, disease and physical disturbances such as strong winds and wildfire.
Why does drying forest matter for the climate?
Europe’s forests play an important role in absorbing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and storing carbon in trees and soils. When drought reduces forest productivity, that carbon-storage function can weaken.
The EEA reported that drought in 2025 reduced ecosystem functioning, including carbon sequestration, while heat and dry conditions increased wildfire risks.
This creates a difficult feedback for climate policy. Forests are important natural carbon sinks, but the effectiveness of those sinks depends partly on forests remaining healthy enough to continue absorbing and storing carbon.
Wildfires can further complicate the picture. When forests burn, stored carbon is released and vegetation capable of absorbing future emissions is lost, although ecosystems can recover to varying degrees depending on fire severity and subsequent conditions.
How are wildfires making pressure on European forests worse?
Dry forests provide conditions in which fires can spread more easily, particularly during periods of extreme heat and strong winds. Copernicus monitoring found that the European summer of 2025 was the fourth warmest on record, with widespread heat stress and severe-to-extreme drought in parts of south-eastern Europe.
The western Iberian Peninsula, parts of the Balkans, Greece and the Black Sea region experienced some of the most severe drought conditions during that summer. Copernicus also reported intense early-season fires in Greece, Cyprus and Türkiye, followed by major wildfire activity in the Balkans and Iberian Peninsula.
The relationship between drought and fire is not automatic because ignition also depends on human activity, lightning, land management and other factors. However, dry vegetation can provide more fuel once a fire begins.
What are European authorities doing to improve forest resilience?
European policymakers are increasingly treating drought and water scarcity as long-term resilience issues rather than isolated weather events.
The European Water Resilience Strategy, adopted in June 2025, promotes improved water governance, sustainable water use, stronger early-warning systems and nature-based solutions. Measures such as wetland restoration and improved soil health are intended to strengthen Europe’s ability to retain water and cope with drought.
The EU’s Nature Restoration Law also sets restoration objectives for ecosystems, including forests and other habitats. However, persistent drought could make restoration more difficult by placing additional stress on ecosystems that are already degraded.
Forest management is consequently becoming increasingly important. Maintaining diverse forests, protecting soil moisture and selecting tree species suited to future climatic conditions are among the approaches being examined to improve resilience.
What could happen to Europe’s forests next?
The outlook will depend heavily on future emissions, rainfall patterns, forest management and the ability of ecosystems to adapt. The EEA warns that drought-affected areas are unlikely to decline under current trends and says stronger adaptation is needed.
For forest managers, governments and communities, the challenge is therefore not simply responding to individual droughts. It is preparing forests for a climate in which periods of heat and water stress may become more frequent or severe.
Europe’s forests remain a critical resource for biodiversity, carbon storage, water regulation and rural economies. Their condition will therefore be an important indicator of the continent’s wider climate resilience. As drought monitoring, wildfire activity and tree-health assessments continue, the evidence from coming seasons will help determine whether adaptation measures are slowing the damage — or whether climate pressures are beginning to overwhelm the capacity of some European forests to recover.
