The UK weather is set to turn increasingly hot this week, with temperatures forecast to reach 37C or 38C in parts of England as the Met Office issues an amber extreme heat warning for Thursday. At the same time, amber Heat-Health Alerts have come into force across almost all of England, signalling the likelihood of significant impacts on health and social care services. The North East is under a lower-level yellow alert. The latest heatwave is also developing against a backdrop of severe drought, putting additional pressure on water supplies, agriculture, infrastructure and emergency services.
Why are UK temperatures expected to reach 38C?
The hottest conditions are expected on Thursday, when temperatures could reach 37C or 38C across parts of eastern, south-eastern and central England. The Met Office has issued an amber extreme heat warning covering areas including London, parts of the East of England, the East and West Midlands and surrounding areas.
The warning is due to run from 9am until midnight on Thursday. Forecasters expect a spell of very hot weather following a warm night, with the highest temperatures concentrated in the east, south-east and Midlands.
Temperatures are expected to build during the week rather than peak immediately. On Tuesday, forecasts included highs around 29C in Cardiff, 28C in Manchester and 25C in London, before the heat intensifies further. Some locations could exceed 36C as the hot air becomes established.
The intensity of the heat means conditions will not simply be a matter of discomfort. The Met Office has warned that vulnerable people could experience adverse health effects, while heat-sensitive infrastructure and equipment may also be affected.
Which areas are covered by the extreme heat warning?
The Met Office’s amber warning covers large parts of England, including London, the East of England, the East Midlands, the West Midlands and parts of neighbouring regions.
Places specifically identified within the warning area include London, St Albans, Cambridge, Oxford, Milton Keynes, Peterborough, Leicester, Birmingham, Nottingham, Lincoln and Sheffield. The exact temperature experienced will vary according to location, altitude, cloud cover and local conditions.
The warning does not mean every location within the affected area will record 38C. Instead, it highlights the potential for very high temperatures and the disruption and health impacts that can accompany them.
The Met Office also warns that transport delays are possible and that some heat-sensitive systems could fail. Power networks and other infrastructure can become more vulnerable when demand rises and equipment is exposed to prolonged high temperatures.
What do the amber heat-health alerts mean?
Amber Heat-Health Alerts issued by the UK Health Security Agency and Met Office indicate that significant impacts are expected across health and social care. They are separate from the Met Office’s weather-warning system, although the two systems operate closely together.
The current amber alerts cover all regions of England except the North East, which has a yellow alert. The alerts are scheduled to remain in place until Friday evening.
Under the amber category, health and social care services may face increased pressure. UKHSA guidance identifies risks including overheating in hospitals and care homes, difficulties for staff working in high temperatures, increased demand for electricity and potential problems with medicines that require careful temperature control.
A yellow alert, meanwhile, indicates that vulnerable groups may be affected even when the wider population experiences less severe impacts. UKHSA says older people, babies and young children and people with certain existing health conditions can be particularly vulnerable to hot weather.
Who is most at risk during the heatwave?
Older people, young children and those with existing health conditions are among those most likely to become unwell during periods of high temperatures. However, UKHSA stresses that heat can affect anyone.
High temperatures can contribute to dehydration, heat exhaustion and heatstroke. They can also place additional strain on the cardiovascular and respiratory systems. The body’s ability to cool itself depends heavily on sweating, meaning dehydration and other factors that reduce sweating can increase the risk of overheating.
Public health advice includes drinking regularly, avoiding strenuous activity during the hottest part of the day and keeping indoor spaces as cool as possible. People are also advised to check on relatives, friends and neighbours who may be more vulnerable.
UKHSA recommends keeping curtains or blinds closed in rooms exposed to strong sunlight during the day and opening windows when outside air becomes cooler than indoor air. People who must spend time outside should seek shade, wear suitable clothing and use high-protection sunscreen.
How could the extreme heat affect travel and infrastructure?
The high temperatures could create disruption beyond the health service. The Met Office has warned of possible delays to road, rail and air travel, while heat-sensitive systems and equipment may experience failures.
Infrastructure can be particularly vulnerable during periods of prolonged heat because materials and mechanical systems respond differently to high temperatures. Roads, rail equipment, electrical networks and other systems can all face additional stress when temperatures remain elevated.
The Met Office warning therefore represents more than a temperature forecast. It is an assessment of the potential consequences of extreme heat for daily life, transport and infrastructure.
Why is drought making the latest UK weather situation more serious?
The latest heatwave is developing while much of England is experiencing severe water shortages. The Environment Agency has reported that 71.3% of England is experiencing “flash drought”, following an exceptionally dry July and further limited rainfall into August.
Several additional areas were recently declared to be in drought, adding to regions already under drought status. Reservoir levels have also fallen, increasing pressure on water resources used by households, agriculture and the environment.
The impact is particularly significant for farmers. The National Farmers’ Union has warned of early harvesting, reduced yields and difficulties securing enough water for crops. Livestock and dairy farmers have also been affected as dry conditions reduce grass growth.
The combination of heat and drought can also increase wildfire risks because vegetation becomes dry and more easily ignited. Firefighters in Hampshire are continuing efforts to contain a significant New Forest fire, while damage to the A31 has added to local disruption.
What does the latest heatwave mean for the wider UK climate?
The immediate weather event should be distinguished from the longer-term climate trend, but UK health authorities say there is a clear reason for increased preparedness.
UKHSA says hotter-than-usual summer conditions are becoming more likely and that, under climate change, heatwaves in England are expected to become more intense, last longer and occur more frequently.
The UK has already experienced temperatures of 40C, most notably during the exceptional heat of July 2022. Public health authorities have consequently developed more detailed warning systems designed to identify health risks before the most dangerous conditions arrive.
The current alert system considers more than a single temperature threshold. UKHSA and the Met Office assess factors including the expected duration of an event, the number of regions affected, the likelihood of escalation and the potential pressure on health and social care services.
What happens next in the UK weather forecast?
The immediate focus will be on Thursday, when temperatures are expected to reach their highest levels and the Met Office’s amber extreme heat warning will be in force. Forecasters will continue monitoring temperatures and atmospheric conditions as the heat develops.
The health alerts will also remain important through Friday, particularly for hospitals, care providers and people at higher risk of heat-related illness.
Beyond the immediate heatwave, the drought situation could prove more difficult to resolve. Hydrologists have warned that meaningful recovery will require sustained rainfall over many weeks or months rather than a brief spell of wet weather. At the same time, prolonged dry conditions can leave soils hard and vulnerable to rapid runoff and flooding when heavy rain eventually arrives.
For the public, the key message is to monitor official forecasts and health alerts, particularly as temperatures approach their expected peak. With 38C possible in parts of England, the latest UK weather represents a significant period of extreme heat, while the simultaneous drought highlights the wider pressures created by increasingly severe summer weather. Further changes to temperatures, warnings and rainfall will determine how the situation develops over the coming days.
