As expected, indeed, better than expected. The Italian economy in 2023 and 2024 will march at a faster pace than the estimates of the main international institutions and also in comparison with Germany, France and the United Kingdom. Today it was the International Monetary Fund that announced that at the end of this year the gross domestic product will grow by 1.1%, and that in 2024 the increase will be equal to 0.9%. These seem insignificant data, but in the past months the alarms about a possible, indeed almost probable, reecession have multiplied, all blatantly denied by the numbers that speak of moderate growth, but growth nonetheless. In its update to the World Economic Outlook, the IMF revised its estimate for 2023 upwards by 0.4%, with a change of more than 57% compared to previous estimates. For 2024 however, the improvement is 0.1%, from the previous year plus 0.8%.
In Europe, the performance of Spain was also good, which this year will grow by 1%, while Germany, due to the weakness of manufacturing production and the economic contraction recorded in the first quarter of 2023, saw its forecasts revised downwards (0. 2 percentage points) to -0.3%. The IMF expects growth in the euro area to decline from 3.5% in 2022 to 0.9% in 2023, before rising to 1.5% in 2024. The forecast is broadly unchanged, but with one change in composition for 2023.
The International Monetary Fund observes that “in the United States, growth is expected to slow from 2.1% in 2022 to 1.8% in 2023, before declining further to 1.0% in 2024. For 2023, forecasts they were revised upwards by 0.2 percentage points, due to consumption growth in the first quarter, reflecting a still tight labor market that supported the increase in real income and the recovery in vehicle purchases”. However, “This momentum in consumption growth is not expected to last: Consumers have largely used up excess savings accumulated during the pandemic, and the Federal Reserve is expected to hike rates further.”
“The balance of risks to global growth remains oriented towards the downside”, the IMF specified. The number one danger remains inflation which could remain elevated and even rise if further shocks occur, including those resulting from intensified war pressure in Ukraine and extreme weather events, triggering tighter monetary policy. China’s recovery could slow down, also due to unsolved real estate problems, with negative effects in other countries as well. On the side of upside risks, “inflation could fall faster than expected, reducing the need for tight monetary policy, and domestic demand could once again prove more resilient”.
A picture that makes the economists of the Fund state that “in most economies the priority remains the achievement of lasting disinflation, while ensuring financial stability. Therefore, central banks should remain focused on restoring price stability and strengthening of financial supervision and risk monitoring”.
This article is originally published on italiaoggi.it
